13 Aug 2010 Tri-Agency Mission Scientist Report - Rob Rogers
Mission synopsis:
No NOAA missions are planned in the next 48 h. Attention will be focused on the
remnants of TD#5, in the event that it re-emerges over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The
aircraft for GRIP and PREDICT are either enroute or already in place in their respective
bases of operation.
A test flight is planned for the Global Hawk on Tuesday, possibly flying to the Gulf and
back to Dryden.
A test flight is also planned for the G-V on Sunday.
Forecast for Tropical Areas of Interest
Forecast Synopsis 1800 UTC
Author: Rogers
Summary:
PGI29L (the remnants of TD#5) is currently located near the Mississippi/Alabama border
about 150 km inland and appears to be drifting slowly to the northeast. Although surface
observations suggest that this system may still have a weak closed surface circulation,
most of the convection is occurring over a small region northeast of the low-level center.
Elsewhere, PGI25L located near 20 °N and 60° W and PGI27L located near 10° N and
30° W remain weak and disorganized while continuing to moving slowly to the north and
west, respectively. Finally PGI28L located near 15° N and 10° W continues moving to
the west- northwest while showing some signs of organization.
Discussion:
The tropical Atlantic is dominated by two features: a ridge confined to the eastern part of
the basin and a stationary front and associated baroclinic low pressure in the western part
of the basin extending across the mid-Atlantic states (Fig. 1). A series of tropical waves
are apparent in the MDR and into the Caribbean, but only some of these waves are
associated with pouches as identified by the PREDICT team. Showers and
thunderstorms are associated with PGI29L, which is the remnants of TD#5, in the
northern Gulf of Mexico (Fig. 2). Showers are also associated with PGI25L northeast of
the windward islands. Other showers are evident in the southwestern Caribbean, but they
are not associated with any identified pouch. Finally, pouches PGI27L in the eastern
Atlantic is devoid of convection and poses little chance for development, and PGI28L is
over western Africa.
PGI29L is located over southern Louisiana, with scattered showers offshore and deep
convection in the northern part of the circulation (Fig. 3). Pouch analysis of the model
forecasts (Fig. 4) indicate that this system will likely make an anticyclonic loop, possibly
emerging over the northern Gulf of Mexico in 3-5 days’ time. Depending on the amount
of time the system is over water, regeneration is possible.
PGI25L, northeast of the Leeward islands, does have some scattered shower activity
associated with it (Fig. 5). It is expected to move toward the north over the next 24-48 h.
The shear is low at this time, but it is moving into a region of higher shear. Neither the
GFS nor the ECMWF develop this system (Figs. 6,7).
PGI27L in the eastern Atlantic is devoid of any precipitation (Fig. 8), though the models
forecast a generally westward track for the next 24-48 h. Both the GFS and ECMWF are
able to track a pouch at 700 hPa (Fig. 9,10), but they both fail to intensify it after 36-72 h.
PGI28L over Africa shows very impressive, widespread deep convective and stratiform
precipitation that also indicates a circulation at least in the midlevels (Fig. 11). However,
all model guidance takes the system off toward the northwest, well east of any possible
operations for any agency.
A well-defined squall line east of PGI28L is evident in the satellite imagery in Fig. 11.
While not identified as a pouch yet, global model guidance suggests this may develop
into a tropical cyclone in the eastern Atlantic in 6-7 days’ time (Fig. 12). This system
will definitely bear watching in the coming days.
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| Tri-Agency Mission Scientist discusion 13Aug2010.pdf | 1.91 MB |
