Afternoon Update, May 10
The 00/06Z models did not pick up the scattered showers/storms well which have formed over southern into central and eastern OK today. But a few scattered (elevated) showers off to the south and east will continue to move NE through the state, within the diffluent upper-level flow, and continue as a shortwave lifts NE across northern Texas. A cirrus shield has covered most of the area today, keeping day time temperatures down, limiting any severe weather chances. Lower dBz echoes are scattered over western OK, most likely not reaching the ground.
Updating Wednesday's storm chances, still appears to be two events affecting our region. The upper level trough lifts into the panhandle region with more negative tilt, interacting with the southerly jet, with some diffluence still pronounced at 15Z which could help kick off a line of storms from southern KS through northern TX over central OK between 15-18Z, progressing eastward. Possibly also trailing behind 18-21Z. A few isolated storms may then form 21-00Z along a dryline in western OK, which may be severe. The SPC currently has a moderate risk of severe weather from central OK through central Kansas.
As the surface low spins over western Kansas, a good chance of precipitation on the backside over NE Colorado exists, especially between 00-06Z and possibly lingering through early Thursday morning.
Thursday afternoon/evening storms may develop over NE OK along the cold front as the low slowly progresses eastward.
