Not much additional info to update. Still looking towards Wednesday for the best chance of convection in the SGP region. Exact timing is still undecided as models tend to want to begin the convection earlier than would be expected, afternoon 21Z initiation along the dryline. Lots of factors still in play.
Forecasts
Forecast for Day 0:
There still remains a 10% chance of isolated convection later this afternoon/evening. The cap would have to be broken and a mid-level wave move through between 21-00Z for a few storms to develop. Still have good moisture being drawn up along with CAPE values nearing 5000J.
Forecast for Day 1:
The best chance for storms to develop will remain over southern into SE Oklahoma, Tuesday night. Mid/upper level cirrus likely Tuesday over the SGP site.
Forecast for Day 2:
The upper wave lifts out of the rockies into the central plains to initialize storm development during the day Wednesday. timing is still an issue with the models trying to initiate before maximum day time heating. But likely storms would develop along the dryline between 21-00Z and move east/NE. Models appear to have rain out of the area just after 00Z. Also stronger storm development may be a concern around the Omaha area.
Extended Outlook:
Cooler temperatures behind the front for the rest of the week. And depending on the models could be a chance of precipitation into the weekend.
