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Morning Forecast April 30

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Morning Forecast, Saturday, April 30

Submitted by avarble on Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:38
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A cold front passed through the area this morning ending all chances of precipitation today.  As the day progresses tomorrow, chances increase for elevated convection to develop over our area well northwest of the surface front. Any convection that does develop would originate around 700 mb. This threat continues through Sunday night into Monday morning although instability decreases through this period.  Increased upper level vorticity advection associated with the upper level trough moving eastward along with isentropic lift of moisture in the mid-levels may produce stratiform showers over the area Monday.  If not, there is still a likelihood of mid to upper level clouds and possible virga advecting over the site from the southwest.

Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Morning
Day 0: 
04/30/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

No precipitation is forecasted for today as a cold front has passed and brought cooler and drier air to the area.

Day 1: 
05/01/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

Chances for elevated convection will increase going into the afternoon and evening hours as moisture and warm air advection moves in at 700 mb over the cold air below with rather steep lapse rates above this level.  Models put the best chance of precipitation between 15Z and 0Z, although the NWS likes our chances best in the Sunday-Monday overnight hours.  Our chances currently look like 20-40% for precipitation at some point during this period.  The SREF gives only about a 30% chance for measureable precipitation with a less than 10% chance of 0.1 inches.

Day 2: 
05/02/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

As instability decreases, isentropic lift and vorticity advection become the forcing mechanisms for stratiform precipitation on Monday morning and afternoon.  Deep convection will remain far to the southeast, but the likelihood of mid to upper level clouds will be high with virga a good possibility as well in the clouds advecting over the site within strong southwesterly flow below the jet.  Although chances for measureable precipitation during this time are still less than 50%, the situation could be suitable for Citation observations even without precipitation.

Extended Outlook: 

The next chance for precipitation is Thursday into Friday associated with a trough moving down from the north and a surge of moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico.


  1. MC3E Weather Briefing 20110430.ppt

 

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