A complicated situation remains over the region today, as the upper level trough has slowly progressed into the intermountain west. Thunderstorms developed early this morning over the Texas panhandle and have been progressing north/eastward into western OK, which was not forecast in the models. But a shortwave in the upper level flow has kicked these off and will likely propogate NE-ward. Clouds will move in and cover our area later this morning and likely some showers/storms spreading eastward after 16/17Z. The earlier models have had a difficult time dealing with the precipitation forecasts for today, so a lot of this morning based on Nowcasting. But the 12Z should have a better handle later this morning. We expect some showers over north central OK through early afternoon. Depending if/how fast the system moves through will lead to if/when isolated stronger convection occurs later this afternoon/evening along a dryline in western OK.
Light precip will be fairly persistent across NE Colorado most of the day as the surface low spins across SE Colorado into KS. This rain will likely become heaviest late tonight into early morning over NE CO. With the slow progression of the cut off low/upper trough, another round of storms may develop Thursday afternoon/evening from north central OK (20%) into eastern OK (more likely). Then possible wrap around precipitation over northern OK Friday morning. Before becoming cooler and mostly clear Friday afternoon through the weekend.
