Although the weather today through this weekend will likely remain dry over the SGP region, a series of weak fronts, returning moisture with drylines, and low-level jets will try to fire off a few storm events. A week cold front will pass through northern OK by 18Z with cumulus likely in the afternoon, the showers/storms staying far off to the east. Dry conditions with brisk southerly surface winds will persist Friday, before a weak warm front lifts northward across the area late Friday night along with some moisture return. An 850mb jet intensifies overnight into Saturday morning with a chance of rain mainly over southern Kansas and into NE OK again (20%). The surface front will then again return southward Saturday afternoon setting up possible isolated storms near the developing dryline/front triple point. The front then again lifts northward Sunday morning, while a broad upper-level ridge builds in across the central plains. Again, slight chance of rain early Sunday morning over northern Kansas (20%).
Instability will be strongly capped Monday into Tuesday, until a deeper upper level trough is expected to enhance lift along with a stronger cold front mid-week. After a likely dry period, the next best chance for more widespread precipitation is forecast to occur next Wednesday.
