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Pre-Campaign Forecast, Thursday April 7th

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Pre-Campaign Forecast, Thursday April 7th

Submitted by sgiangrande on Thu, 04/07/2011 - 14:48
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The diffuse long-wave trough pattern with axis most immediately centered over California continues to eject weak to moderate impulses across the forecasting region and gradually build moisture. These impulses carrying potential to kick off isolated to more widespread precipitation, especially along and north of a surface boundary still lingering near the Oklahoma Kansas border today into tonight. Forecast picture for precipitation threats sharpens into Friday afternoon wherein afternoon mixing, an established dryline in western Oklahoma and good moisture return through central Oklahoma coupled with potential shortwave passage all favorable for isolated severe convection in the larger Oklahoma bounds. Continued, strong case for widespread precipitation is associated with the eventual passage of the broader longwave trough by early Sunday. 

Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Afternoon
Day 0: 
04/07/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

Continued thread for light precipitation through mid-afternoon, especially north and east of the Central Facility, as surface warm front migrates northward. Maintain forecasting presence over northern KS sounding locations into evening hours.

Day 1: 
04/08/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

Threat for isolated convective supercells to fire along a dryline formed over western Oklahoma. Timetable is trending toward a mid-afternoon passage of a shortwave and additional daytime mixing and building moisture support throughout the day to possibly overcome expected capping inversion. Best chances favor along the dryline, suggesting cells of interest those firing west of I35 and north of I44 with reasonable likelihood to propagate over the surface facilities. Possibility for isolated storms over Oklahoma is reasonable and atmosphere has been recently rewarding aggressive calls compared to model guidance, but isolated nature and initiation conditions being satisfied still subject of uncertainty.

Day 2: 
04/02/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

Building moisture and passage of the large-scale trough to be associated with a first, true substantial wave of widespread precipitation over north-central Oklahoma in quite some time. Timing is consistent with previous discussions, but wave/forecast soundings relatively quick for showing signs of fropa over the central facility overnight into very early Sunday and dry air working in aloft. Afternoon threat for convection west of facility is also a possibility.

Extended Outlook: 

Clear for a few days, contingent on the timing of the present substantial wave.

 

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