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Forecast May 26

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Morning Forecast, Thursday May 26

Submitted by dhartsock on Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:54

 

Clouds have decreased this morning, moving off to the east as well as decreasing winds as a ridge of high pressure moves over the southern plains. Dry and cooler conditions should persist through the day.

Clouds will begin increasing again Friday, with 20% chance of storms and a slight risk of severe weather Friday night. The low-level jet may move in from the south overnight, pushing northward.

Saturday favorable upslope conditions exist for northern colorado showers into the evening and possibly overnight. Also the low-level jet pushes up further north increasing chances of rain over northern Kansas overnight pushing into SE Nebraska.

Sunday, Monday, Tuesday the upper level trough develops over the west. Confidence is not very high with chances of rain over Oklahoma, though with moisture returning this weekend, cumulus fields would be likely everyday with 20% scattered showers.

Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Morning
Day 0: 
05/26/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

Decreasing clouds and winds today. A ridge of high pressure exists over the central and into southern plains. Cooler with low moisture. Should remain mostly clear today. A week of heavy rainfall has saturated most of the soil except north-west OK. Any chance for shallow Cu to develop would be if it warms up enough, but not likely. The forecast soundings show very dry conditions throughout the low and mid levels. Cirrus moving in over Colorado.

Day 1: 
05/27/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

Southerly winds and moisture return Friday. Clouds likely in the morning with possible drizzle. A warm front lifts northward across the state. Slight risk of severe storms from central to eastern OK. Lifting northward overnight as the low-level jet (850 mb) get going from the south. Still only 20-30% of rain over north-central OK.

Day 2: 
05/28/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

Surface low continues to develop over Texas panhandle. Could see a good upslope event over Colorado later afternoon into evening hours, and possibly overnight. The low level jet will again ramp up but be pushed further north, giving better chances of rain over a surface frontal boundary across Kansas into southern Nebraska.

Extended Outlook: 

Sunday into Monday the upper level trough develops over the West, but still to far out to determine if it will dig further into our region or if it will lift across the rockies into the northern plains. Currently only 20% chance of rain Sunday and Tuesday.


  1. MC3E Weather Briefing 20110526.ppt

 

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