Possible severe weather/tornado outbreak day across Oklahoma later this afternoon/evening. The upper level trough is digging down over the southern rockies and into the Texas panhandle with divergent outflow from Kansas down through Oklahoma later this afternoon. A surface low will continue to deepen across the OK panhandle as a dryline shifts into western OK. A high risk of severe storms includes all except the western third of the state, with isolated strong storms likely developing 20-22z along the dryline and moving east/north-eastward around 30 knots. A line of thunderstorms is forecast to extend from north texas into Nebraska and propagate eastward, which will also likely affect the Offutt area later tonight. Storms and showers are also likely to continue forming along the central to northern Colorado area this afternoon, perhaps opening a window of opportunity for the ER-2 between the current MCS moving through SE Nebraska and the forecast late night storms arrival.
Wednesday the low pressure system will lift across the central plains along with a chance of wrap around rain over northern Oklahoma in the afternoon. Brisk surface wins will also be in play circling around the low from OK to NE. Rain chances are highest near offutt decreasing in probability through Kansas into OK, although low overcast cloud deck will be likely.
As the system shifts eastward, the region will begin to clear out. Likely to see some fair weather cumulus in the wake during the day. Friday will bring more cumulus clouds with a slight chance of some showers over northern OK.
