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May 19th Morning Forecast

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Morning Forecast, Thursday May 19

Submitted by dhartsock on Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:39

 

Low clouds and low level moisture persisting over the state this morning, while rain showers stayed north over Kansas overnight. The upper level system continues to churn over the rockies. The dryline which has retreated back into the panhandle is expected to set up again over far western OK. Again chances of isolated storms developing near there, moving NE. The models flip flop between runs and conditions remain complicated. Convection would likely initiate ~21z, with the most likely scenario placing the strong storms over Kansas, and less chances over OK. If storms can develop, a line of storms, possible MCS, would form tonight and propagate eastward overnight. Gusty E winds and chances of storms near Omaha also complicate things for the ER-2 toinght.

Friday morning appears to be the greatest probablitly of widespread showers over the SGP region, perhaps beginning earlier in the morning, though greatest likelihood being forecasted between 15-21z . Then pushing out eastward later Friday evening. Saturday appears to remain mostly clear. Chances of scattered showers begin to increase again Sunday evening into Monday and Tuesday, as another upper trough begins to dig into the Pacific West and interact with a southerly jet.

Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Morning
Day 0: 
05/19/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

Moist and warm air in the lower levels continues to advect in, with low clouds persisting and keeping daytime heating down, except over far western OK, where a dryline is forecast to setup this afternoon. Slight chances of severe weather exist, developing around 21z along the boundary. Best chances seem to exist up in Kansas. The 12z OUN forecast indicated a stronger cap, and with the upper level flow not progressing much further east than yesterday, it seems difficult for anything to get going today. A shortwave may form later tonight in the upper levels which could kick storms off later tonight, and increasing chances overnight. 

Day 1: 
05/20/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

If storms do fire overnight, there is a good probability that MCS could form and propagate across the state. The models have indicated better chances of widespread showers/storms over the region Friday morning into afternoon, indicating 15-21z as the maxima for timing. These showers could spread eastward Friday afternoon into evening before clearing out.

Day 2: 
05/21/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

The upper trough will lift out over the northern plains, and drier air spreading across western OK. Saturday is expected to be mostly clear, though moisture persisting may produce a few clouds and very low chance of isolated showers.

Extended Outlook: 

The southerly jet off the pacific will begin to interact with the southerly region a bit, increasing chances of scattered showers Sunday. The moisture continues to remain with southerly flow. Monday and Tuesday another upper trough off the Pacific West may begin digging in and increase chances of Precipitation again. A cold front may move through then mid-week


  1. MC3E Weather Briefing 20110519.ppt

 

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