A line of storms passed through overnight and has pushed into NE OK. The forecast remains complex for the next few days as the upper low continues to church over the pacific northwest, slowly progressing eastward. Storms and showers will be likely Wednesday night through Friday over or near the SGP region, but confidence in the models remains low as to the exact details in timing and coverage. It does appear a sure thing that northern Colorado will be in an upslope event WED evening with some possibly strong storms embedded in widespread precipitation.
WED evening a few isolated severe storms may develop over western-central OK along the dryline/frontal boundary before propagating north-eastward. The GFS puts more rain over northern OK, while the NAM has rain focused more over southern OK late tonight.
THURS appears to be the the most challenging forecast, as both appear to develop storms along the dryline around 21Z but the NAM doesn't hold with the storms after that. And the other complicating factors include how slow the upper level system is actually moving, and possibly a morning/afternoon MCS event similar to what happened last week, which none of the models predicted. The general consensus appears to be that the best chance for widespread showers will be later Thursday night, into the overnight hours.
FRI the upper level system spins in over the rockies with SW flow aloft over the region, enhancing lift, while the moisture will remain abundant across the region with the dryline moving back west near the panhandle. It currently appears that the late morning, early afternoon timeframe would be the more likely scenario for widespread convection across the region. Later that evening, the NAM redevelops storms over Western OK, while the GFS pushes everything off further off to eastern OK.
