Another cool, dry morning, but changing soon as southerly winds begin increasing and moisture returning again to the area by Wednesday. The upper ridge will continue to keep us dry today, but mid and upper clouds will increase ahead of the system. As the upper trough digs into the mountain west region, light precipitation will be noticed there as cyclogenisis also occurs over SE Colorado. This surface low will spin about for a few days along with frontal boundaries and we'll begin to see increasing chances of showers/storms over the SGP region. A mid level wave is expected to move through central Kansas overnight, with a band of rain from northern OK through Kansas progressing eastward into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon and evening show a few scattered showers over the state ahead of a lifting warm front, as well as heavy precipitation over northern CO, with a few embedded t-storms possibly. Thursday appears to be the onset of more severe storms, with convection initiating along a dryline in western OK by afternoon/early evening and propagating east/north-eastward. Possible MCS formation later Thursday night, into early Thursday morning. Good chance of t-storms affecting the ER-2 location late Thursday night as well. Another round of storms appears likely Friday afternoon over north central OK, pushing further east Friday evening.
The NAM and GFS still differ a bit in the precipitation forecast details. While the NAM is trying to cap Thursday's storms a bit, it produces more widespread storms over the SGP region Friday afternoon.
