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May 13 Morning Forecast

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Morning Forecast, Friday May 13

Submitted by dhartsock on Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:38
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Low overcast cloud deck (1km/850mb) covering the northern half of OK this morning from the wrap around back side of the low pressure system. Light precip over eastern KS and possibly into the NE OK. The brisk north/north-westerly winds will persist throughout the day and cloud cover will begin breaking later this afternoon around 21Z, clearing out by the evening.

Saturday will continue cooler and dry, while Sunday a few more mid-level clouds and possibly spotty showers in the morning before clearing out Sunday afternoon a few fair weather Cu. The upper level ridge will build in over the plains early next week, keeping high pressure dominate over the region. The next upper level trough, jet will begin to reach our area from the West by mid-week, with increasing chances of rain and storms Wednesday.

Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Morning
Day 0: 
05/13/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

North/North-Westerly winds fairly brisk on this Friday the 13th morning. A low, overcast cloud deck ~1km has filled in over the northern half of OK. 850 mb RH and forecast soundings forecast the clouds to persist through early afternoon, possbily breaking up by 21Z, then clearing out later this evening. Some light precip over north/central KS has fallen apart  but still some wrap around showers closer to the upper low spinning over the Kansas City area. Along with the surface low moving east towards St. Louis this afternoon, possble light wrap around over NE OK today.

Day 1: 
05/14/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

North/north-westerly flow will continue and dry conditions will persist throughout the day.

Day 2: 
05/15/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

Northwesterly flow will continue through Sunday, while a bit of convergence in the mid levels and increased RH at 700 mb will likely see some clouds through the morning, and possibly spotty light precip from Kansas into northern OK. But more likely some mid level clouds giving way to a few fair weather Cu in the afternoon. An upper level ridge will begin building over the Rockies.

Extended Outlook: 

Monday and Tuesday should remain mostly dry and clear under the ridge. The next upper level trough will begin digging over the pacific west, with a jet streak forecast to come off the Pacific with the nose of the jet poking into the panhandle Wednesday. Chances of storms and showers increasing over the southern and central plains mid-week.


  1. MC3E Weather Briefing 20110513.ppt

 

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