Morning Forecast May 2

We agreed at the 5 PM meeting yesterday (May 1) that we would monitor the weather early this morning and meet at 7 AM due to the potential of a Citation flight over the SGP site.  We agreed that there was virga advecting over the site, but that very dry lower levels would prevent any precipitation from occurring.  The frontal boundaries from the surface up through 700 mb are much farther to the south than yesterday and thus, precipitation is expected to remain farther south and east.  Upper level forcing also looked displaced to the south with cold air advection winning the battle over our area.  Thus, we chose to not fly the Citation.  This was a wise decision as we can now see clearing to the west already as of 17Z and virga is well to the southeast.  Potential exists for a convective shower to push into the area this evening if the trough progresses a bit quicker than anticipated, but very likely the sun will set and that combined with rather dry air in place will eliminate this potential.

Conditions look very cold in the morning but warming into the low 70s by afternoon with a chance of cumulus later in the day.  No precipitation.

Conditions will be similar to Day 1, but a bit warmer and drier. No precipitation.

The next chance for precipitation looks to be Friday into Saturday as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs to our northwest.  A warmer and more moist airmass should be advected northward at low levels if this verifies.  As the surface cyclone moves east and intensifies, we would expect a cold front to move southeastward providing the possible surface forcing necessary for convective initiation.  A dry line situation is possible as well.  This is a long way off in the forecast and thus, the timing and location of such an event is still up in the air.  Being the only possible event in the near future, this situation should be monitored closely by forecasters as the week progresses.