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Pre-Campaign Forecast, Tuesday April 19

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Pre-Campaign Forecast, Tuesday April 19

Submitted by dhartsock on Tue, 04/19/2011 - 13:55
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The upper-level trough is kicking through with a surface cold front, which came a few hours ahead of yesterday's schedule. A 12Z frontal passage at the CF will keep the region rain-free, as the front is forecast to initialize some t-storms around 21Z near the OK/Arkansas border. Wednesday will remain mostly clear before a warm front is forecast to lift out of Texas with increased lower-level moisture as well Thursday. Widespread light rain/drizzle is likely throughout the day, with some storms possible later that evening into Friday morning. Another upper-level wave returns to kick off some storms east of here Friday evening. A stationary front may linger around Saturday bringing good chances of rain again this weekend.

Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Morning
Day 0: 
04/19/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

The surface cold front passed through SGP CF at 12Z this morning, well before any day time heating could help build clouds. The region will most likely remain rain-free with a few passing post frontal clouds. Severe thunderstorms are now likely further east, as the front is forecast to reach the OK/Arkansas border by 21Z.

 
Day 1: 
04/20/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

Will remain mostly clear and cool behind the front which will make its way deep down into Texas. A few cirrus clouds possible in zonal flow aloft. The front may begin lifting northward through Texas Wednesday evening, possibly reaching the TX/OK border with a few showers late.

Day 2: 
04/21/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

Many factors come into play Thursday as we are hoping for much needed precipitation. The warm front is forecast to continue to lift through OK northward along with increased lower-level moisture. Low clouds will be overcast with some light rain/drizzle throughout most of the day. As an upper-level wave begins to move through the intermountain west a few thunderstorm showers are possible late Thursday night, into Friday morning.

Extended Outlook: 

The upper-level wave will kick through Friday, possibly kicking off some t-storms across central-NE OK. A stationary front may hang around bringing chances of rain again Saturday-Sunday. Before another upper-level wave kicks through.

 

Map showing strom predictions for the Untied States


  1. MC3E Weather Briefing 20110419.pptx

 

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