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Pre-Campaign Forecast, Tuesday April 5th

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Pre-Campaign Forecast, Tuesday April 5th

Submitted by sgiangrande on Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:29
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Innocuous weather pattern for significant precipitation continues in the wake of yesterday's event that scavenged most of the better moisture. Ridge pattern will continue into Thursday and evolve slowly into one of a relatively diffuse upper level trough with limited available moisture return to provide confidence at this time for widespread precipitation development over campaign facilities. Any precipitation would be associated with a surface front expected to retreat over central Oklahoma and into Kansas by Thursday.  As a well-defined west coast US trough takes shape and progresses over the region, the associated moisture set up should improve leading into Friday and may feature afternoon isolated convection that has been trending more significant in most recent GFS; The more well-forced campaign-type widespread event forecast would be in store for late Saturday into Sunday with the passage of this wave. As with early this week, if such an amplified wave were correctly timed, early next week should be conducive for campaign down days in the wake of such an event.  

 

Scott

Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Morning
Day 0: 
04/05/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

Clear conditions, no appreciable precipitation for the next 24 hour period. Winds at upper level typically strong and out of the Northwest with perhaps high scattered clouds tonight.

Day 1: 
04/06/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

Precipitation is unexpected as a consequence of limited moisture return through evening, although slight chance in association with a retreating surface front / weak upper level wave. Winds shifting more to out of West towards upper levels. 

Day 2: 
04/07/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

Precipitation likelihood increasing and contingent on available moisture return and development of the incoming longer wave trough, but nonetheless not expected to be widespread. 

Extended Outlook: 

Increased likelihood for precipitation throughout the weekend with the passage of the longer wave trough. Timing is still uncertain, however Friday and Saturday both apparently conducive for precipitation over campaign facilities. At current time, best chance for widespread precipitation is setting up for Saturday Afternoon into evening associated with the primary passage of the amplifying trough and best associated moisture availability. However, most recent GFS has been more aggressive for a more campaign-type event on Friday.

Jet stream and weather for the United States

Jet stream and weather for the United States

 

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