Update forecast for Ex-TD05
This is an update forecast for Ex-TD05. As of the 8:05pm EDT NHC discussion time, Ex-TD05 has still not been upgraded back to Tropical Depression status. An investigation flight earlier today did not reveal winds and circulation sufficient to decalare this system a TD, however powerful convection still continues to flare to the SW of the center of circulation. The system has become more disorganized in the last 12 hours. Based on IR satellite (first below) and radar imagery (second below) at 0000UTC Aug 17, 2010, it would appear that the center of circulation is currently located at approximately 19.5N/88.5W. The model forecast (third below) initializations differ slightly, but the consensus seems to be that this system's center will be back over land again in 12-18 hours, (or between 1200 and 1800 UTC Aug 17, 2010). The approximate "landfall" location will likely be Grand Isle, LA. The system is then forecast to make a northward turn and be near the Mississippi/Louisiana border by 1800 UTC Aug 18, 2010. This system is not a likely science target for tomorrow, and tomorrow's mission will be for instrumentation validation purposes, and possibly for a microphysics mission since significant convection to the south of this system should persist through aircraft flight time. Forecasters: Inglish, Zawislak
