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Tropical Areas of Interest Forecast for August 12 2010

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Tropical Areas of Interest Forecast for August 12 2010

Submitted by cinglish on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 15:38
  • Tropical Areas of Interest:

After the short-lived TD#5/PGI-29L began to dissipate yesterday afternoon, the system and its disorganized convection have drifted toward the LA coast, and the center of circulation came ashore late this morning. This system will continue to be monitored closely due to the model track and intensity predictions which could have the system re-emerging into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days.  In the mean time, wind shear (4) is dominating the northern Gulf and Florida. While much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet under high pressure dominance suppressing convection associated with most of the 4 tropical easterly waves (3), the majority of the dry air can be found northwest of Africa at mid levels (8). The four easterly waves are located (1, 3) in the Bahamas, over the Dominican Republic, approaching the Windward Islands (formerly associated with PGI-25L, which no longer has a vorticity signature at 850 hPa (4)), and the wave associated with PGI-27L in the eastern Atlantic. Forecasters: Inglish, Zawislak, Janiga

Forecasts
 
Forecast Valid Date 1: 
08/12/2010
Forecast Valid Time 1: 
18Z
Forecast 1: 

Forecast for 1800 UTC 8/12/2010:

 

At 1200UTC PGI-27L was centered near 13N/23W (2), off the west coast of Africa.  A stream of high TPW (2) is entering the disturbance area from the east, cut-off from the main ITCZ convection to the south.  IR (1800 UTC;6) shows an area of scattered convective activity with warm tops, generally west of the analyzed pouch.  There is no distinct low or mid-level circulation present.  A significant SAL outbreak (8) has occurred to the north of the pouch. The consensus forecast (6) is for slowing westward progression; the consensus track for 27L is as follows: 8/13 0600 UTC: 12N/29W; 8/13 1800 UTC: 12N/32W; 8/14 0600 UTC: 12N/34W; 8/14 1800 UTC: 12N/36W.

 

PGI-28L at 1200UTC was centered over northern Africa near 15N/5W (7). Convection near the center is impressive and has undergone a cycle of MCSs over the past 2 days.  Although dependent on the initialization, the current track is northwestward towards higher latitudes. Despite the northward track into a drier region, pouch average 700 hPa relative humidity in ECMWF and NOGAPS stays high (~70-80%).

 

PGI29L (94L ... TD05L) is currently near the Gulf coast the disturbance is forecast to move inland near the Louisiana/Mississippi border at 24 h and further into Mississippi possibly reaching 33N by 48 h (5). There is potential for the system to move back toward the coast near the end of the forecast but there is considerable model uncertainty in this regard. This will depend on the evolution of an upper-level trough extending into the Midwest and an upper-level ridge over the Southwest US.

See attached PDF document for static images associated with this forecast.

Forecasters: Inglish, Zawislak, Janiga

Forecast 2: 
 
Forecast 3: 
 
Forecast 4: 
 
Forecast 5: 
 
Forecast 6: 
 


Attachment Size
TriagencyForecastAugust12.pdf 1.8 MB

 

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